Ángel Cabrera: Global Leaders Can Be Made

It’s been beautiful in Beijing these days.  Blue, crisp skies following an unusually early snow that even paralyzed the airport over the weekend.  It’s also been quite cold… too cold for this unprepared, Macau-bound Arizonan traveling without a coat, insisting in discussing climate change!  (Thanks to both American Chamber and the 2005 Committee for arranging terrific events… and to the Thunderbird alumni who made me once again feel at home in China).

Here is the basic math that will be at the heart of the coming UN Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen.  China has already surpassed the US as the world’s leading emitter.  Together China, the US and the European Union account for over 50% of the world emissions of CO2 (the main greenhouse gas).  Russia, India and Japan add about another 15% of the world emissions, in approximately equal parts.  Another 13 nations add between 1 and 2% a piece.  Why shouldn’t we expect that each of them commit to a reduction proportional to their current emissions to keep our delicate planet at least as livable as it is today?

Here’s the catch. The income of the average American is about $47K, compared to the $6K (PPP or about half in nominal terms) of the average Chinese or less than $3K (again PPP, or about a third in nominal terms) of the average Indian.  According to some estimates, over a third of the Chinese population and over two fourths of Indians live on less than $2 a day (together that adds up to about 1.4 billion people).   The average American produces almost 20 metric tons of carbon every year.  That compares to less than 5 in China (of which at least a third is related to manufacturing goods consumed by developed nations) and less than 1.5 in India.

Any solution to the looming climate change crisis will need to recognize these disparities.  Poverty is a more immediate and painful problem than climate change for the vast majority of the world.  But inaction in climate change will one day yield unprecedented pain, probably more so to the poor.

Agreements need to recognize that rich countries have burned more than their fair share of hydrocarbons to drive their prosperity, and even today they continue to overuse them to sustain their lifestyle.  Developed countries will need to provide a lot more than basic development assistance and technology to developing countries, if they want their much needed cooperation to curb emissions.

Posted: 11|3|09 at 5:03 pm.
Filed under: Global Citizenship, Global Leadership.
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