Archive for the ‘Kinsinger, Paul’ Category

By Paul Kinsinger

Headlines often paint a grim picture of life in the Middle East. People who view the region from afar see a dangerous place full of angry extremists who can’t get along with themselves or others. Recent stories of human rights violations in Syria and power struggles in Egypt only strengthen the perception of dangerous fallout from the Arab Spring. Yet the media lens distorts reality by focusing on unusual or extreme events. At Thunderbird School of Global Management we believe the best way to understand a culture is to experience it firsthand. Westerners who visit the Middle East might be surprised by what they encounter at the corner café — just as Middle East observers coming the other direction might be surprised by the lack of race riots or hate crimes on your street. In both cases the reality is more mundane than what media headlines suggest.
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By Paul Kinsinger and Karen Walch, Ph.D.

The concept of a VUCA world — one that is volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous — was introduced by the U.S. military as the Cold War ended and as the United States looked out over the emergence of a multilateral global landscape. The VUCA concept was brought home to many Americans after 9/11 but really gained currency in the private sector with the onset of the financial crisis in 2008-09, when companies and organizations all over the world suddenly found themselves faced with similar turbulence in their business environments and, subsequently, in their business models. Leaders in the new world of “permanent whitewater” must master the VUCA antidotes: Vision, understanding, clarity and agility.
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Middle East activists seeking increased political freedom have suffered setbacks in recent weeks, but Thunderbird School of Global Management Professor Paul Kinsinger said events still could turn in their favor. “Many younger people are feeling disappointed by recent developments,” Kinsinger said Jan. 18, 2012, during an alumni webinar. “What we have to hope for is that they are down but not out, that there may be further room for improvement.” Kinsinger, a retired U.S. intelligence officer who returned recently from a trip to Saudi Arabia, said events in Egypt and other Mideast countries are still evolving. “We have yet to see how the secular players in Egypt are going to manifest any sense of power in future elections or with a new parliament in Egypt or in the rewriting of a constitution in Egypt,” he said. “It is just not clear yet.” Watch the full webinar on the Thunderbird Knowledge Network. | Video: Arab Spring One Year Later (57:49)
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Young people with access to social media technology will help transform Middle East culture in the coming months, Thunderbird Professors Paul Kinsinger and Melissa Beran Samuelson said Sept. 13, 2011, in a faculty webinar. “The demographics in much of the Arab world is extremely young,” Kinsinger says. “There is tremendous pressure on these governments and these societies to find opportunities for people coming of age.” Samuelson says the United States saw a similar youth movement in the 1960s. “When you’re young, there is a lot more possibility in the air,” she says. “And that helps drive some of the revolution.” The professors respond to alumni questions about Libya, Syria, Egypt, Israel and other Middle East hotspots in this hourlong webinar. | Webinar: Arab Spring Update (57:54)
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What is the worst-case scenario in Yemen? How will Saudi Arabia react if violence from Yemen spills across the border? What is the future of Muammar Gaddafi in Libya? How will instability in the Middle East affect guest workers in the region? How will U.S. President Barack Obama’s call for a return to 1967 borders affect the Arab-Israeli dispute? Thunderbird School of Global Management Professor Paul Kinsinger, a former U.S. Central Intelligence Agency officer in the Middle East, explores these questions and more in a faculty webcast for alumni on June 2, 2011. “We definitely have seen a two-track set of developments in the Arab world,” said Kinsinger, who will represent Thunderbird Corporate Learning in Saudi Arabia this weekend. “The wealthier monarchies, while they are watching very carefully what is going on, have not — with the exception of Bahrain — been subject to the same types of pressures as have the authoritarian states of Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen and Lybia.” | Faculty webcast: Paul Kinsinger on the Middle East (57:48)
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Libyan rebels fighting against autocratic leader Muammar Gaddafi will decide their own fate, but Thunderbird Professor Paul Kinsinger said they might need outside assistance in two ways. “As to whether the Libyans need any outside assistance, I see two categories where help is most critical,” Kinsinger said March 2, 2011, during a free alumni webinar. “The first is humanitarian assistance, primarily on the Tunisian border where there are many thousands of refugees trying to get out of Libya and away from the strife. The second could be — and I use the word ‘could’ because I think it is still very much conditional — some kind of limited military intervention or assistance to the rebels to even the playing field.” Kinsinger, a Middle East expert who spent nearly 20 years with the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency, leads Thunderbird’s Learning Consulting Network. During his hourlong presentation, he responded to live questions from the online audience. Watch the full webinar for more insights.
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By Paul Kinsinger

The global recession has no doubt cost several CI professionals their jobs, and is causing many others to re-think their career prospects going forward. Still, despite companies’ propensity to cut back reflexively on costs, one would think that the times also create an even greater need for market and competitive intelligence. Consider the following: The big consultancies, which have spent much of the recession churning out commentary, analysis and strategy ideas to stay in touch with their clients (and keep their talent gainfully employed), have recently produced several valuable insights for those of us who work with intelligence and business strategy.
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Senior Iraqi officials, faced with the challenge of reintroducing their country to the global economy following decades of isolation, conflict and corruption under Saddam Hussein, came to Thunderbird for a custom program Dec. 14-17, 2009. “You are beginning to feel the effects of globalization,” Thunderbird Professor Paul Kinsinger told participants in the opening session. “During the Saddam era, few Iraqis felt this.”
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Huge oil reserves bolstered much of the Middle East during the global recession, but Thunderbird Professor Paul Kinsinger said Sept. 14 in Scottsdale, Ariz., that challenges remain for the region as it moves beyond the crisis. “Middle Eastern countries have taken a dip, but they haven’t taken a dip into the negative,” Kinsinger said during a keynote panel discussion at Frost & Sullivan’s Growth, Innovation and Leadership Global Congress at the Hyatt Regency Scottsdale Resort and Spa at Gainey Ranch.
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By Paul Kinsinger, Thunderbird Professor

We are witnessing an extraordinary series of events from Iran these days. A national election for president that was supposed to return a hardliner to power handily has been tainted with charges of fraud. Once again, many thousands of Iranians are in the streets of Tehran, this time demonstrating against the election outcome and in favor of the major opposition candidate. An autocratic regime that has ruled with an iron hand for thirty years faces its greatest internal political challenge ever. | Podcast: Kinsinger on potential spillover from Iran and the influence of social media (1:47) | Video: “Horizon” interview June 22, 2009, on KAET-TV in Phoenix (10:52) 
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