By Professor Gary Gibbons
In October of 2010 Thunderbird Private Equity Center (TPEC), a part of the Walker Center of Global Entrepreneurship, conducted a conference in Ho Chi Minh City, The Socialist Republic of Vietnam.
The October Conference:
Jim la Marche the Managing Director of TPEC, Tracy Thomas, a Program Manager at TPEC and I, Professor Gary Gibbons, the Academic Director of the organization, attended the conference. We were assisted by many “T-Birds” including John Cook, an emeritus member of the executive advisory board of TPEC, Takeshi Kamada, Jessica Tartel, Hao Diep, Ryan Galloway, Tavy Long in-country alums and Loan Ma a first tri student starting spring 2011.
The attendance at the conference was excellent (200 government representatives, academics, professionals and business owners attended the conference).
The program objectives with respect to the exchange of information and the educational goals were met. Additionally, the forging of new professional ties between Thunderbird and members of the various represented governments and professionals within the Southeast Asian area of economic activity was facilitated.
Before leaving Phoenix TPEC solicited and received the gracious participation of high members of the Vietnamese, Cambodian and Laotian governments. The center was also able to attract Mr. John Vong a top advisor to Sacombe Bank, the largest bank in Vietnam as a participant.
Participating as panelists, speakers, or guests were:
Dang Huy Dong, Vice-Minister, Ministry of Planning & Investment, Vietnam
Phouthaxay Sivilay, Director General, Bank & Financial Institution Supervision Department, Lao People’s Democratic Republic
Dr. Ros Seilava, Deputy Secretary General, Ministry of Economic & Finance, Royal Government of Cambodia
Vathana Daraloy, Acting President, Lao’s Securities and Exchange Commission
Kao Thach, Deputy Director General, Securities and Exchange Commission of Cambodia
As well as leading private sector participants from throughout Southeast Asia.
Jim and I scheduled personal meetings with these various persons and the result was that we may be able to bid on contracts to provided training programs of different types for these various constituencies. We invited several of those assisting us to attend the meetings with us.
The Vietnamese Economic and Cultural Environment:
While in Vietnam we were able to gain some insight into the current state of the Vietnamese economy and political environment. Additionally we were able to gain some understanding of the culture and standard of living currently shaping the life of the average Vietnamese citizen. What follows are some brief comments that summarize these insights and understandings:
Economy and Politics
- Their system of government is socialist with the state owning many of the businesses and means of production. The State also is in control of the armed forces, police, education, healthcare, radio and television, economic planning, infrastructure and export and import policy.
- Major natural resources include, rice, coffee, tungsten, copper, gold and fisheries. Apparently exploitable oil reserves have been found although no full-scale exploitation has yet taken place.
- The population is young with about 50 % of the population younger than 30 years of age.
- According to Vice-Minister Dong the national government controls about 58% of the nation’s GDP. The government’s ownership includes most banking, heavy industry, mining, energy and transportation services (i.e., airline, rail and shipping).
- Conversely, the Vietnamese government believes that 42% of the country’s GDP comes from the privates sector of the economy. This area of the economy consists mostly of services, farming, fishing and handcrafts.
- Tourism is growing and is becoming more important since it provides a source of hard currency. Germany, Australia and Russia are the source of most tourism.
The government is embarked on a campaign to privatize many of the approximately 60,000 businesses it currently controls. Early problems with the process include a lack of standardized accounting, problems valuing the business and associated land and the ability to include the land in the purchase.
- The population is about 83 million persons.
- There are no modern highways in Vietnam. Traffic is congested throughout all parts of the country and in all jurisdictions. Trucks, motorcycles, autos, bicycles, tricycles, jitneys and pedestrian all compete for the same limited road space.
- Vietnam Air, the state owned airline, seems well equipped and professionally run. There are three relatively large air terminals (i.e., Hanoi, Ho Chi Minh City and Da Nang).
- A non-stop train ride from Hanoi to Ho Chi Minh City takes twenty eight hours. The distance is about the same as from San Diego to San Jose.
- There are currently seven navigable ports in Vietnam but none of them are capable of taking modern container ships. The government is considering expanding one of these ports or building a new modern port that would be container capable. To do this they would have to raise capital from outside sources like the World Bank.
Culture and Standard of Living
- Also, according to Vice-Minister Dong the per capita GDP has recently risen to a little over one thousand dollars (US).
- Vietnamese seem hard working and industrious. An anonymous State Department source states that he and his colleagues believe that there are 52 billion dollars (US) of privately held gold reserves in the country. Furthermore they believe that much of the economy is underground and that these gold reserves represent the currency used in the underground economy. So the actual per capita GDP may be significantly higher than the official one thousand dollars (US) reported by the government.
- The current exchange rate (in October 2010) is about 19,500 Vietnamese Dong to 1 dollar (US).
- There are roughly 43 million motorcycles in Vietnam. Few Vietnamese own autos and it is not unusual to see up to four Vietnamese on one small motorcycle. Motorcycles play a role in virtually all forms of transportation. While in-country we saw motorcycles used to haul: pig carcasses (5 at one time), boxes of geese and chicken, fresh vegetables, water jugs (ten 30 gallon jugs), flowers, towering table centerpieces, entire auto engines and enumerable sacks or bales of flower, feed or seed.
- According to one of our young guides, farmers and ordinary people are permitted to own their small farms and homes. While many persons do work on family farms or at small private business many persons work for state owned enterprises. The official unemployment rate is about 2.6%.
- Another guide told us that most Vietnamese wait until they are in their late twenties or early thirties to marry and start families. Often young “marrieds” live with in-laws until they are financially able to be on their own.
- We were informed by a young guide that 60 % of the population does not “have any religion”. According to our guide, 30 % are Buddhists, 8 % are Christian with other religions accounting for the remaining 2% (including a small Muslim population). Other sources indicate a much higher rate of religiosity among the people. This data suggests that most of the population (80%) worship as Buddhists.
- The National Museum recounts that Vietnam was dominated by members of the Han Dynasty for over 1000 years starting in 111 BCE. The term Viet Nam is a Chinese term that means “people of the south”. However, the museum makes it clear that there are 54 recognized ethnic groups in the country and that the Chinese connection is old and not recent. Additionally none of the Vietnamese we spoke to seem to view themselves as now having any special affinity with the Chinese. In fact they seem to view the Chinese as major rivals.
- Although the literacy rate in Vietnam is 97%, among the highest in the world, the post secondary education system is definitely behind the curve. I spent a day with the leaders of the National University (the school they think of as their best school). I visited the campus spoke with several of their deans, administrators and students. The university system suffers from a lack of doctoral level faculty, funds and processes to support graduate level research and poor and deteriorating physical plant and equipment. They do have a few joint degree programs with British, Australian and American universities but overall they are currently unable to provide competitive degree programs. Many of their Ph.D level faculty have degrees from Thai universities.
What Key Development Issues Should Vietnam Focus On?
While the Vietnamese feel that their highest priority is to finance and build a world-class container port there are three main needs that they have that should be developed first:
- They need a reliable and ground transportation system. There is only one “highway” in the entire country, Highway 1. Highway 1 is a two lane road that travels south to north and winds its way through town, village and hamlet. It is frequented by trucks, tractors, motorcycles, pedestrians, bicycles, tricycles, motorcycles pulling trailers, taxis, autos, busses and sometimes bullock carts. Anything and everything traveling on the highway is usually stacked high with: car, tractor or truck parts, filled fuel or water containers, sacks of coconuts, cooking oil, produce or animal feed, pig carcasses, clothing, fresh flowers, boxes of seafood, geese or chickens in wire cages and usually people. Average speed on the highway might be 20 mph. They need a road system that can handle the volume of goods that a container port would engender before they need a container port.
- The train system is not any better. A trip from Ho Chi Minh City to Hanoi takes 25 hours non stop. The rail system is limited in its ability to carry either high volume commercial traffic or passenger traffic.
- As we note above, the university system is a problem. Much work needs to be done to provide the kind of programs that will produce the next generation of leadership. The training needs to be focused on technical degrees (engineering, agriculture and health) and business degrees (especially accounting, finance, marketing and supply chain management) Also, I would note that the curriculum is over burdened with what I would call “dead wood” units. Out of a 36 unit MBA program 12 units are what we would consider to be political indoctrination.
- The electrical grid is the other infrastructure item that needs to be resolved. Brown outs and blackouts are common. Hotels, banks and large commercial establishments all need to provide for their own standby power generation capabilities as the public utility’s equipment is old and poorly maintained. Developing their recently discovered oil reserves is not the challenge; more oil is not the problem. It is the infrastructure that is sub-par.
Vietnam has youth and work ethic on its side. On the other side of the ledger, crumbling and over-burdened infrastructure, government regulation of more than half of the economy and corruption, are obstacles to overcome.
Gary Gibbons, Ph.D. is a Visiting Professor and the Academic Director of the Thunderbird Private Enterprise Capital Institute at the Walker Center for Global Entrepreneurship. He teaches Valuation of the Private Firm and Financing and Valuing your Private Enterprise. Dr. Gibbons is an expert in investing and corporate finance with extensive experience in portfolio management, securities valuation, financial modeling, and financial planning and evaluation in entrepreneurial firms.